Be respectful in your interactions with fellow members. You can Go Here to read our Terms and Rules. Visit My Profile to create your avatar and see your posts. If you to report a bug or issue, email us at support.GI US.com

Title: November 7, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 7 NOVEMBER 2025

MIDDLE EAST SITREP

• US Military Presence in Syria: The United States reportedly plans to establish a military presence at an unspecified airbase in Damascus to enable a security agreement between Israel and Syria. The Syrian Foreign Ministry denied these claims on November 6, however.

• Iranian Oil Exports: Iran’s annual oil revenues have significantly decreased, which will likely worsen Iran’s ongoing economic issues amid international sanctions and provide the government with less revenue to carry out its initiatives. Lower oil revenues may cause Iran to reallocate its oil revenues to military expenditures to replace defense systems that Israel destroyed in June 2025, thus decreasing Iran’s ability to invest in other domestic projects.

• Iraqi Elections: Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah Secretary General Abu Hussein al Hamidawi claimed on November 6 that the Shia Coordination Framework will form the next Iraqi government after the parliamentary elections on November 11, despite ongoing divisions between the coalition’s parties.

•. Iranian influence. Iran is reportedly shifting its approach to maintaining influence in Iraq. It’s pushing some of its allied armed factions in the country to integrate into Iraqi politics and institutions ahead of parliamentary elections next week. The change in strategy comes as Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is seeking a second term without relying on support from influential Iranian-backed figures in a Shiite umbrella group called the Coordination Framework who facilitated his initial rise.

• Hezbollah Disarmament: Hezbollah called negotiations with Israel the result of “aggressive blackmail” in a November 6 letter to Lebanese officials. Hezbollah’s letter may be in response to a reported Israeli effort to pressure the Lebanese government to disarm the group.

•. Rule of engagement. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has instructed the Israel Defense Forces to turn part of the border with Egypt into a closed military zone over concerns about weapons smuggling. He also said the rules of engagement would be changing to allow the targeting of any unauthorized entry into the restricted area, including by drone operators and smugglers.

•. Turkey and Hamas. The head of Turkey’s MIT intelligence agency, Ibrahim Kalin, met in Istanbul with Hamas’ chief international negotiator, Khalil Al-Hayya. They discussed Hamas’ ceasefire agreement with Israel, the challenges that lie ahead and the next phase of the plan.

•. New railway. The chairman of Iran Railways and India’s ambassador to Tehran held talks on a rail link currently under construction between Afghanistan and India via Iran’s Chabahar Port. The route would significantly reduce the delivery time for cargo shipments and strengthen regional trade connectivity, they said. It's expected to be completed in six months and operational three months after that.

GLOBAL SITREP

Azerbaijan's connections. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with a delegation of NATO officials on Thursday. He said the Azerbaijani army was implementing reforms in line with NATO standards and closely cooperating with the Turkish army in this regard. Meanwhile, a delegation from the Oklahoma branch of the U.S. National Guard arrived in Azerbaijan. The visit is aimed at strengthening bilateral military ties and exchanging views on a number of issues of mutual interest.

Washington's stance. Taiwan should be given full and equal participation in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit to be held in China next November, the U.S. State Department said Though Taiwan is a member of APEC, Beijing said this week that its participation must comply with the “one China” policy. Taipei has accused Beijing of imposing additional conditions on its engagement in summit events.

China in the Pacific. China signed framework agreements to upgrade its economic partnerships with five Pacific island nations. Under the arrangements, Micronesia, Kiribati, Nauru, Vanuatu and Fiji will conduct negotiations with Beijing on expanding bilateral trade and Chinese support for the islands’ industrialization and agricultural modernization.

Preparations. Officials from China, Iran and Russia held talks in Vienna ahead of a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors later this month.

Funding strategy. The European Council and the European Parliament reached preliminary agreement on measures to boost EU support for defense investments as part of the ReArm Europe plan. The proposed legislation would modify existing EU programs, including Horizon Europe and the European Defense Fund, to channel funding to defense-related projects.

Europe's plan. The European Union is developing a plan to expedite the movement of military equipment and personnel if a conflict with Russia erupts, according to Polish radio station RMF FM.

The European Commission is set to present a document on Nov. 19 outlining what some have called a “military Schengen,” with mechanisms to ensure the efficient transport of troops and equipment through a network of land corridors, airports and ports.

Energy logistics. Russia’s Gazprom set a new record for daily natural gas deliveries to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline on Nov. 5, the company said in a statement. Meanwhile, Russia reportedly may have to reduce liquefied natural gas supplies to China because of low temperatures in the Arctic. Vessels carrying LNG from Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project are already encountering winter ice on the Northern Sea Route, forcing them to reroute through the Suez Canal.

First step. The Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority has issued permits allowing construction to begin on the Paks nuclear plant expansion, according to Russia’s Rosatom, which will lead the project. Work is scheduled to begin in February.

Pray.

Train.

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.

— END REPORT