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Title: January 9, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 9 JANUARY 2026
IRAN, DRUGS & VENEZUELA
 
The Multi-Dimensional Threat to American and Western Security
Iran's Revolutionary Guards are significantly involved in the international drug trade, both directly and through proxies like Hizbullah. This provides access to sources of financing that bypass sanctions as well as sophisticated operational platforms that support subversive efforts aimed at the West.
 
A defector from Iran's Revolutionary Guards revealed the strategic intent behind this drug trafficking: "We were told that the drugs will destroy the sons and daughters of the West, and that we must kill them. Their lives are worth less because they are not Muslims."
 
Emanuele Ottolenghi, an expert on Iranian operations in Latin America at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, notes: "The Iranians made Caracas the hub of all their propaganda and soft power operations in the region, including their Spanish-language 24/7 news network."
 
Iran established a permanent presence in Caracas for its missionary network under the umbrella of the sanctioned Al-Mustafa International University.
 
Maduro, during a 2022 visit to Tehran, declared Venezuela part of the "resistance axis" that "exists throughout the world; it exists in Africa, in Asia, in the Middle East, in Latin America, and in the Caribbean." Largely driven by narcotics trafficking, Hizbullah operatives can move to and from Venezuela discretely and many have roots in Venezuela's one million-strong Lebanese community.
 
Iran has provided Venezuela with Peykaap fastboats armed with anti-ship missiles and UAVs that can be used for both drug smuggling and military operations in the Caribbean. The Rand Corporation warns that "these Iranian weapon systems present a legitimate threat to maritime security in the Caribbean region." Iranian military advisers have helped transform Venezuela into what Ottolenghi describes as a "forward operating base" against the U.S.
 
VENEZUELA & HEZBOLLAH
 
The Lebanese daily Al-Nahar on Jan. 3, 2026, quoted Lebanese Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Wehbe Katicha as saying that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro provided Lebanese Hezbullah with 10,000 Venezuelan passports, some of which were used by officers of Syria's Assad regime to flee the country.
 
CHINA’S UNRESTRICTED WARFARE
 
**Chinese national charged with photographing US stealth bomber base after illegal entry** - The Missouri Attorney General’s Office announced Wednesday that a Chinese national was arrested last month after allegedly photographing two U.S. Air Force bases and its military equipment, including B-2 Spirit stealth bombers. Authorities identified the 35-year-old as Qilin Wu, who entered the U.S. illegally in 2023 near the Arizona-Mexico border. While Qu was initially arrested by immigration authorities, he was later released due to a lack of detention space and was given an immigration removal proceeding scheduled for 2027, officials said. The attorney's office said investigators first caught Wu on Dec. 2 near Whiteman Air Force Base, home to the military's B‑2 Spirit stealth bomber fleet, an exceptionally sensitive asset due to its nuclear and stealth capabilities. After initially receiving a warning, Wu reportedly returned the following day. Authorities then arrested Wu, who was allegedly found in possession of 18 photos and videos of the base. He also admitted to taking photos of another U.S. Air Force base, officials said, without naming the second location.
 
CHINA —TAIWAN DRILLS
 
**Chinese drill near Taiwan seen as test run for blockade, message to US
China’s two days of military drills in waters surrounding Taiwan last month came closer than ever to the self-ruled island’s coast and were the largest-scale exercises in more than three years of exercises partly aimed at deterring a U.S. role in an actual war, analysts say.
 
A rocket artillery unit participating in the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command’s “Justice Mission 2025” drills fired shells into the sea into the contiguous zone 24 nautical miles off Taiwan’s coast on Dec. 30, the National Defense Ministry told domestic media.
 
The unit’s fire took place during PLA drills in five tracts of ocean — described overall as practice for blocking major Taiwanese air and sea routes with aircraft and naval assets, but this time without aircraft carriers. Carriers have joined other drills and are seen helping to ward off external intervention in the event of conflict.
 
Experts in Taipei said December’s drills were the biggest since 2022, when China began using military exercises to vent anger toward Taiwan’s defiance of Beijing and such U.S. moves as arms sales to Taipei. China has the world’s largest military in terms of active personnel, according to the market research firm Statista.
 
The latest Justice Mission 2025 is quantitatively the second biggest according to Enrico Cau, an associate researcher at the Taiwan Strategy Research Association think tank.
In terms of complexity, like tactics and mission goals, all the exercises seem to have covered different missions and tasks, some overlapping, some different.
 
In particular, the “range” of the zones used for the latest exercises was “the largest”, according to Chen Yi-fan, assistant professor in the Diplomacy and International Relations Department at Taiwan’s Tamkang University.
 
Beijing has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan for more than seven decades and threatened force to take it, if necessary. Years of opinion polls in Taiwan show preference for self-rule.
 
China sees Taiwan President Lai Ching-te as a champion for independence, and talks between the two sides fell apart in 2016.
 
Chinese robot dogs and “intelligent warfare” used on Dec. 29 and 30 looked good on television, but it remains unclear whether the PLA could sustain the actions of the two days of drills during a longer conflict.
 
The sustainability question is one Beijing doesn’t want to answer. The PLA has never shown its ability to sustain a blockade for weeks because they need to handle personnel shifts and logistics while operating under enemy fire and maintaining sensor-to-shooter connections against and potentially U.S. and Japanese interference.”
From a Chinese perspective, the Dec. 29-30 drills were “successfully completed,” PLA Eastern Theater Command Senior Captain Li Xi said via the military’s website. The command will now “remain on high alert at all times, keep strengthening combat readiness through arduous training, resolutely thwart the attempts of ‘Taiwan Independence’ separatists and external intervention, and firmly safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Li said.
 
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, a government body in charge of China affairs,criticized the drills on Dec. 29 as an “irrational” move disrupting civilian traffic, affecting the security of “life and property” and trying to change the “status quo” of relations between the two sides.
 
CARTEL VIOLENCE IN DURANGO
 
**Clash in Durango, Mexico leaves two National Guard agents and a child dead** - An attack between armed civilians and security forces on the Durango-Zacatecas highway resulted in the death of two members of the National Guard and a 12-year-old boy , as well as the complete closure of the road and an intense security deployment in the region. The incident occurred on the afternoon of Tuesday, January 6, on Three Kings Day, in the vicinity of the municipality of Nombre de Dios . According to information released by El Sol de Durango , a National Guard patrol was intercepted by a group of armed civilians near kilometer 245 , in the section known as El Saltito , on Federal Highway 45 that connects Durango and Zacatecas .
 
PROTESTS IN IRAN
 
**Street protests erupt in Tehran as nationwide anti-government turmoil spreads** - Anti-government protests erupted in Tehran on Thursday, as Iranians angered by a flailing economy and crackdowns by security forces marched through the streets of the capital and shouted slogans against the ruling theocratic regime. Authorities cut internet access and telephone lines in Iran immediately after the protests began. An internet watchdog organization described the move as a precursor to a possible violent crackdown, although the blackout did not immediately prevent the posting of videos of the protests. At least some of the protesters appeared to be heeding a call by exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to turn out Thursday. One of the slogans shouted by the marchers was “This is the last battle, Pahlavi will return,” according to video reviewed by CNN. As the latest protests unfolded, Pahlavi posted encouragement on X, urging Iranians to “take to the streets and, as a united front, shout your demands.” He added, “Rise Iran!” Footage verified by CNN showed mass protests in cities across Iran, with demonstrators blocking roads and setting fires in the streets of the capital. In the videos, opposing factions demonstrating across the country rallied around chants in support of and opposition to the Iranian government.
 
RUSSIA FIRES “HYPERSONIC” MISSILE:
 
**Russia Fired a Hypersonic Warning Shot from Belarus. NATO Isn’t Listening** - The deployment of Oreshnik missiles to Belarus—the likely front line of a NATO-Russia conflict—is especially concerning because European nations have no reliable countermeasures against them. The Oreshnik missile supposedly travels at Mach 10, making it all but impossible to intercept with existing air defenses. Deploying these systems to Belarus not only further threatens Ukraine, but it also increases Russia’s threat to European NATO members such as Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia—all of which are near to Belarus’ borders. Russia’s deployment comes both at a time in which the Kremlin wants to button up the Ukraine War and at the moment in which the European NATO members are all clamoring for war with Russia. By placing a handful of these weapons so near to NATO’s borders—weapons that can easily outfly any NATO defense—Moscow is attempting to send a strong signal of renewed deterrence to the Europeans. Oreshniks have an estimated range of up to 3,400 miles, or 5,500 kilometers, meaning that nowhere in Europe is safe from these weapons. This is on top of Moscow’s conventional nuclear weapons capability.
 
**NOTE: The United States successfully shot down a hypersonic missile in a recent test, showcasing its missile defense capabilities.Apr 7, 2025.
 
SYRIA
 
Syrian Army Besieges Kurdish neighborhood in Aleppo. At least 12 people have been killed during two days of intense clashes between Syrian government and Kurdish fighters in Aleppo. Tens of thousands of civilians have fled the Kurdish majority neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh, which the Syrian army shelled on Wednesday after designating them as "closed military areas." The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) called it a "criminal attempt" to forcibly displace residents.
In March 2025, the SDF, which controls much of Syria's northeast and has tens of thousands of fighters, signed a deal to integrate all military and civilian institutions into the Syrian state. But that has not happened yet. The SDF remains reluctant to give up the autonomy it won during the country's civil war, when it helped U.S.-led forces defeat the Islamic State.
 
AFGHANISTAN: NIM COMMANDER ASSASSINATED
 
**Former Uprising Forces Commander Killed In Jowzjan** - A local commander affiliated with the National Islamic Movement Party of Afghanistan was shot dead by unidentified gunmen in northern Afghanistan after being deported from Iran, the party’s spokesperson said. Ehsan Niro told Afghanistan International that the Taliban were responsible for the killing of a commander known as Yousuf in Khwaja Du Koh district of Jowzjan province. Niro said Yousuf was killed on Wednesday night, January 7, while returning home from a wedding ceremony. Yousuf had served as a local commander in the former Afghan government’s public uprising forces and was a loyal supporter of Abdul Rashid Dostum, the leader of the National Islamic Movement Party of Afghanistan. He had taken part in numerous security operations before the Taliban returned to power, according to the spokesperson.
 
SAUDI ARABIA CONCERNS
 
**U.S. lawmakers weigh in on fears of Saudi Arabia accommodating Islamists** - Lawmakers in Washington are largely downplaying recent developments suggesting that Saudi Arabia is pivoting away from moderation and entertaining more hardline Islamism. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been at loggerheads in Sudan, Somalia and Yemen — including a recent Saudi airstrike on an Emirati shipment in southern Yemen — prompting questions about Riyadh’s continued interest in acting as a moderating force in the region.
 
MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD IN YEMEN
 
**Muslim Brotherhood Activity in Yemen Tied to Wider International Coordination** - The Muslim Brotherhood’s branch in Yemen has stepped up its political and organizational activity in recent days, in a move that observers say extends beyond the country’s borders and intersects with broader initiatives of the international organization. This development comes at a time of mounting tensions in southern and eastern Yemen, where the security and political landscape remains volatile. Analysts note that the Brotherhood’s mobilization cannot be separated from the international meeting held in Istanbul earlier this week, which served as a direct coordination platform between the global leadership and active branches in conflict zones with Yemen at the forefront. The recent activity highlights the group’s attempt to align its local strategies with the wider agenda of the international Muslim Brotherhood, reflecting a push for greater influence amid Yemen’s escalating crisis.
 
JIDAHIS IN BRITISH PRISONS
 
**Islamist gangs are raising hell in Britain’s prisons** - Just before Christmas, His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Prisons (HMIP) walked out of HMP Swaleside on the Kent coast to issue a rare red flag warning to Ministers. The ‘Urgent Notification’ painted a dystopian picture of an institution no longer in the control of the state, wracked by staff shortages, violence and drugs. HMPPS said that it did not centrally hold any data on ‘faith or ideology’ related incidents. Yet here we have unusually clear evidence from local monitors that religious gangs are holding sway over legal authority in a jail holding extremely dangerous people. But this phenomenon was reported explicitly to Government in 2022 by its own advisor on terrorism, Jonathan Hall KC. In 2022 he found that Muslim gangs were linked to Islamist extremism and create a ‘fearful environment’ with rising assaults, where privileges like separate food or prayer times reinforce boundaries and an ‘oppositional identity’ among Muslim prisoners. He cited examples including ‘the use of sharia courts and punishment (including flogging)’, ‘assaulting other prisoners for faith-based reasons’ and ‘acting collectively to intimidate staff’.
 
GERMANY UPDATE
 
**Power returning to Berlin after arson attack** - The electricity supply to areas of southwest Berlin affected by a major power outage is to be restored gradually over the course of Wednesday, according to the energy provider Stromnetz Berlin. Initially, the provider had predicted a complete restoration of power by Thursday. The power outage has lasted for five days, with 20,000 households still affected early on Wednesday.
 
—J.G., R.D. & M.B.
 
Have a great weekend from all of us at GZB.
 
—END REPORT