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Title: January 19, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 19 JANUARY 2026
 
U.S. INFLUENCE & INFORMATION WARFARE
 
**The Country’s First ‘Cognitive Advantage’ Chief: Influence Is the New Battlefield** - Shawn Chenoweth, the first Director of Cognitive Advantage at the U.S. National Security Council, argues Washington must begin treating information as a core instrument of national power alongside diplomacy, military force, and economics. Chenoweth spoke with the Cipher Brief, describing modern competition as a nonstop gray-zone struggle for political outcomes, where adversaries use AI, social platforms, and influence campaigns to shape behavior at scale. The U.S., under-resourced compared to rivals, must adapt quickly to an AI-driven environment where “AI vs AI” influence battles are already emerging.
 
**NOTE:** Unfortuantely this realization is late to the game. From Sun Tzu: "There are many principles to be drawn from The Art of War; the first is that all warfare is based on deception. This emphasizes that success in conflict often depends on misleading your opponent. " and "The goal is to manipulate the enemy’s perception so they make decisions that benefit you. In military terms, if your opponent believes you are retreating when you’re actually preparing an ambush, you gain the upper hand. The underlying lesson is that perception shapes reality in competitive environments. Controlling what others believe can be as powerful as controlling physical resources." War has always been about influence and what it takes to persuade the other. Time to understand what Information Operations really is, codify it and put it into practice (I know it works from first hand experience).
 
U.S. NAVAL BLOCKADE
 
**U.S. Blockade Shuts Off China, Cuba From Venezuelan Oil **- A U.S. naval crackdown has sharply curtailed Venezuelan oil exports to China and Cuba following the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro, according to shipping data. Intelligence firm Kpler reports that since Jan. 3, oil exports have fallen about 75 percent, with only U.S. bound or domestically used cargoes leaving Venezuelan ports. U.S. forces have seized multiple tankers linked to a sanctions evasion network, effectively halting Asia bound flows. The disruption pressures China’s discounted crude strategy and reshapes global supply dynamics, while redirecting Venezuelan oil toward U.S. Gulf Coast refineries amid Washington’s push to reorient Venezuela’s energy sector.
 
**China-Linked APT Exploits Sitecore Zero-Day in Attacks on American Critical Infrastructure** - A threat actor likely aligned with China has been observed targeting critical infrastructure sectors in North America since at least last year. Cisco Talos, which is tracking the activity under the name UAT-8837, assessed it to be a China-nexus advanced persistent threat (APT) actor with medium confidence based on tactical overlaps with other campaigns mounted by threat actors from the region. The cybersecurity company noted that the threat actor is "primarily tasked with obtaining initial access to high-value organizations," based on the tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) and post-compromise activity observed.
 
RUSSO-UKRAINE SITREP
 
**Is the Russian Military Adapting Effectively to the Drone Age?** - A combat video released by DeepState showing a heavily modified Russian ‘Frankenstein tank’ absorbing dozens of drone strikes before being disabled and abandoned by its crew has intensified debate within Russia about how drones are reshaping warfare. Analysts say cheap, ubiquitous UAVs have eroded the effectiveness of traditional massed armor and infantry tactics, forcing Russia to rely on small assault teams that yield limited territorial gains at high cost. Russian military thinkers, constrained from openly criticizing the war, increasingly question doctrine, training, and force structure. Despite incremental adaptations and new unmanned units ordered by President Vladimir Putin, experts see no fundamental shift, warning current tactics cannot sustain offensive momentum.
 
**EU executive weighs idea of quick, but limited membership for Ukraine** - The European Commission is exploring an early stage proposal to fast track Ukraine’s entry into the European Union through a form of limited or staged membership, according to EU officials. The idea would allow Ukraine to join the bloc quickly as part of a potential peace settlement with Russia, while withholding full voting and institutional rights until required reforms are completed. Officials say the concept reflects geopolitical realities after years of war and aims to offer Ukrainians a credible path toward stability and integration. The approach would still require unanimous approval from EU member states and could complicate accession prospects for other candidate countries.
**Ukraine's top commander says Russia plans big boost in drone production** - Ukraine’s top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Russia is showing no interest in peace talks and is instead intensifying combat operations and weapons production.
 
In an interview with lb.ua, Syrskyi said Russia currently produces about 400 Iranian designed Shahed drones daily and aims to raise output to 1,000 per day. He said Ukraine must disrupt those plans through sustained military pressure, including deep strike operations that have damaged Russia’s energy sector. Syrskyi also cited improvements in Ukrainian mobilization, training, and casualty reduction, while Russian forces continue gradual territorial advances.
 
**Russia welcomes Trump's tariffs on NATO allies over Greenland as 'collapse' of alliance **- Russian officials hailed U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on NATO allies over his push to buy Greenland, framing it as proof of the alliance’s disintegration. Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev called the move the “collapse” of transatlantic unity, while former President Dmitry Medvedev mocked European leaders and urged Trump to “annex Greenland.” The tariffs—set to begin at 10% on Feb. 1 and rise to 25% by June—followed European troop deployments to the Arctic territory and have prompted EU concern over NATO cohesion. EU ambassadors held an emergency meeting on Sunday to coordinate a response.
 
MIDDLE EAST SITREP
 
US kills al-Qaeda affiliate leader tied to December attack in Syria, Centcom says** - U.S. military forces on Friday killed an al-Qaeda affiliate leader linked to an Islamic State attack on Americans in Syria last month, U.S. Central Command said in a statement on Saturday. Bilal Hasan al-Jasim had "direct ties" to an ISIS gunman who killed and injured U.S. and Syrian personnel on December 13 in Palmyra, Syria, Central Command said.
 
IRAN’S PROXY MILITIAS & THREATS TO U.S. BASES
 
**Iran's IRGC‑Directed Redeployment of Proxy Militias to Afghanistan** - Recent intelligence originating from confidential sources in Tehran indicates a coordinated effort by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–Quds Force (IRGC‑QF) to redeploy elements of its foreign proxy militias from Syria into Afghanistan. This movement—facilitated through diplomatic channels involving the Taliban’s embassy in Tehran—appears designed to secure loyal paramilitary assets outside Iran during a period of acute domestic instability and rising external pressure on the ruling regime. The operation involves the transfer and covert stationing of commanders and fighters from Liwa Fatemiyoun, Liwa Zainabiyoun, and associated Hazara Shiite combat units at Taliban Ministry of Defense bases in three Afghan provinces (locations withheld due to sensitivity). The redeployment began on 5 January 2026 and is ongoing. This activity suggests a contingency strategy by the IRGC to preserve combat‑ready forces, ensure regional influence, and prepare for potential escalation scenarios—including the possibility of regime‑threatening unrest or foreign military intervention.
 
**Kataib Hezbollah threatens US bases in the Middle East if US strikes Iran** - On January 16, against the backdrop of a possible American military operation against Iran, Kataib Hezbollah (Hezbollah Brigades) threatened that the group was ready to strike US bases in Iraq and the region if Washington launched a war against the Islamic Republic. The Shiite militia is part of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a group of militias, many backed by Iran, that comprise an official Iraqi security institution. At a rally outside the Iranian embassy in Baghdad attended by various Iran-backed Iraqi Shiite militias, Kataib Hezbollah official Abu Talib al Saidi declared his group’s readiness to carry out attacks on US military bases. Saidi warned that Kataib Hezbollah, which the US has designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) and a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) entity, has its hands on its weapons, and American bases in the region would not be “immune from our missiles and drones.” Unlike the group’s posture during the June 2025 Israeli and American strikes on Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure, Saidi said that Kataib Hezbollah would not stay neutral.
 
IRAN’S PROXIES IN YEMEN
 
**US imposes new sanctions on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen** - The Trump administration issued fresh sanctions on Friday further targeting the Iran-backed Houthi terrorists in Yemen and the transfer of oil products, weapons and other so-called dual-use equipment that it said helped fund the group. The action targets 21 individuals and entities as well as one vessel, including some alleged front companies in Yemen, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, the US Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control said in a statement.
 
JIHADIST EXTREMIST IN CANADA
 
**Canada: Muslim with al-Qaeda ties keep threatening to blow things up, but it’s okay, he has mental issues** - Leonard Waxman’s claim that Mohamed Abdullah Warsame is harmless and has “deep psychiatric problems” would be a great deal more compelling if we hadn’t been told so many times over the years that so many obvious jihadis were simply mentally ill.
 
A homeless man who had attended al-Qaeda training camps and is charged with allegedly threatening to bomb public transit in Montreal is now also accused of issuing a threat from jail to blow up Passport Canada offices. Mohamed Abdullah Warsame, a 52-year-old Somali-born Canadian citizen, appeared at the Montreal courthouse via video conference on Thursday.
 
Warsame’s lawyer, Leonard Waxman, told reporters after the brief hearing in Quebec court that his client has had numerous mental health struggles and had been recently diagnosed with schizophrenia. And earlier this week he was charged with uttering threats and perpetrating a terrorist hoax for allegedly using a jail phone in November to threaten to blow up the Passport Canada offices in Montreal and Quebec City.
 
Warsame pleaded guilty in Minnesota in 2009 to providing material support to the terrorist organization al-Qaeda. According to his 2009 plea agreement, he travelled to Afghanistan in 2000 to attend al-Qaeda training camps, where he met the organization’s founder, Osama bin Laden. He later sent money to one of bin Laden’s training camp commanders. Warsame then relocated to Minneapolis, where he continued to provide information to al-Qaeda associates throughout 2002 and 2003. He was arrested in December 2003 and spent five and a half years in solitary before pleading guilty.
 
And in 2009, Warsame was sentenced to 92 months in federal prison with credit for time served. He was deported to Canada in October 2010. On Thursday, Waxman said Warsame has no current links to terror groups.
 
IRAN SITREP
 
In Iran, a prolonged period of high inflation has combined with a collapse in the value of the rial to produce mass unrest. Rising consumer prices steadily erode daily living standards, while surging producer prices point to deeper strains within Iran’s economy, increasing the risk of job losses and firm closures as input costs rise. By constraining foreign currency access and raising production costs, international sanctions have reinforced these dynamics, limiting the regime’s capacity to absorb economic shocks.
Iran’s demographics add even more complexity. A large share of Iran’s population of 92 million is between the ages of 25 and 44, trying to raise a family and approaching their peak earning years. Instead, these Iranians have faced economic stagnation. Compared with student-driven protest cycles, discontent among this age group can be more difficult to defuse. Moreover, mass discontent can arise unevenly and unpredictably because of Iran’s ethnic and religious diversity.
 
These factors point to sustained instability. The regime retains control through coercion, particularly in the political center, but economic and demographic pressures suggest that maintaining order will demand more security and fiscal resources over time, reducing the state’s ability to manage economic policy and respond to external challenges.
 
**How dangerous are Iranian secret services in Germany?** - Germany’s domestic intelligence service warns that Iranian intelligence agencies pose a growing threat to Iranians in exile, particularly activists, journalists, and dissidents. According to the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Iranian services engage in transnational repression, including surveillance, intimidation, cyberattacks, abductions, and targeted killings. The risks have intensified amid mass protests in Iran and the regime’s violent crackdown. German authorities cite cases of hostage taking and assassinations abroad, as well as plots against Jewish and Israeli-linked targets. Berlin has responded by closing Iranian consulates and warning citizens against travel, but intelligence officials say the threat inside Germany remains serious and persistent.
 
**In Iran, Streets Full of Soldiers and Warnings From Loudspeakers** - Iran’s leadership has reasserted control of the Islamic Republic after crushing a nationwide uprising, replacing street protests with what residents describe as virtual martial law. Security forces, including the Basij militia, are patrolling cities, issuing warnings via loudspeakers and maintaining a heavy presence around universities and commercial areas. Only isolated protests have been reported in recent days. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei blamed the unrest on President Donald Trump, while authorities have begun limited steps to restore normal activity, including partial internet access, amid continued security operations.
 
—END REPORT