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Title: September 25, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 25 SEPTEMBER 2025

DOMESTIC OUTLOOK

Over the past few weeks, the United States has grappled with a series of alarming incidents tied to violent extremism, underscoring the persistent threat to public safety and national security. From the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk by a radicalized 22-year-old in Utah to a neo-Nazi-inspired plot to bomb Nashville’s power grid, these events reveal a spectrum of ideological motivations fueling domestic extremism.

Simultaneously, concerns about foreign influence operations have intensified, particularly with China’s strategic expansion of aid in regions such as Africa and Central America following the U.S. decision to gut USAID programs. Additionally, allegations of CAIR’s ties to pro-Hamas groups and its push into U.S. schools have raised alarms about foreign-linked ideological infiltration, prompting calls for federal scrutiny.

Together, these incidents signal a complex landscape where domestic extremism and foreign influence converge, demanding vigilant monitoring and robust countermeasures.

Two Men Arrested After Explosive Device Found Under News Vehicle

• On Sept. 12, 2025, two Utah men—Adeeb Nasir, 58, and Adil Justice Ahmed Nasir, 31—were arrested after an explosive device was discovered under a news media vehicle parked near an occupied building in Salt Lake City, having been lit but failed to detonate, posing a significant threat to public safety.

• Authorities executed a search warrant that evening at the suspects' home in Magna, Utah, uncovering two additional hoax explosive devices, firearms (despite both being prohibited from owning them), illegal narcotics, electronic devices, and explosive components, leading to evacuations of nearby residences.

• The men face multiple felony charges, including manufacturing or possessing a weapon of mass destruction, attempted aggravated arson, threat of terrorism, and possession of incendiary devices. Court documents indicate they admitted the devices were real, and police requested no bail due to ongoing risks.

MIDDLE EAST SITREP

IRAN

• Iranian Ballistic Missile Program: Iran has begun reconstructing several ballistic missile facilities as part of a broader effort to rebuild its degraded ballistic missile program after the Israel-Iran War.

• Russo-Iranian Defense Cooperation: An Iranian parliamentarian claimed on September 23 that Russia delivered MiG-29 fighter jets to Iran. CTP-ISW cannot verify this claim, but if the claim is true, Iran’s acquisition of MiG-29 aircraft would almost certainly not help Iran defend against Israeli or US aircraft in a future conventional conflict.

• Iraqi Parliamentary Elections: Shia Coordination Framework parties that will compete against Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani in the November 2025 parliamentary elections are continuing to try to detract voter support for Sudani’s coalition

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ISRAEL & SYRIA

Israel and Syria. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office confirmed on Wednesday that security negotiations with Syria are underway. Also on Wednesday, in a speech delivered at the U.N. General Assembly, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa accused Israel of continuously threatening his country since his administration took over in December. He also said, however, that Syria does not want war and will use diplomacy to resolve disputes.

GAZA

Gaza blockade. Italy and Spain will send naval vessels to help safeguard their citizens participating in a Gaza-bound flotilla. The activists aboard the Global Sumud Flotilla, who are trying to break through Israel’s blockade of Gaza, said their ships were hit by "unidentified objects" – which they suspect were dropped by drones flying overhead – while sailing off the coast of Greece. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani asked Israel to guarantee the safety of the 58 Italians on board, including lawmakers. Israel has said it will block the flotilla from reaching Gaza.

THE ARMY OF THE MAHDI

Rebel factions. The Houthi rebels no longer view members of al-Qaida and the Islamic State as ideological adversaries, the Al Arabiya news site said, citing a report by the PTOC Yemen Center. The Yemeni group has been absorbing members of these two organizations to expand its ranks, according to the report. It is also vetting detainees in prisons to identify those suitable for reemployment. They are offered salaries of up to $260 per month, as well as weapons and protection, in exchange for joining Houthi combat operations.

GLOBAL SITREP

U.S. & RUSSIA

The U.S. and Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly session on Wednesday. They discussed Ukraine and the outcomes of the Alaska summit between the U.S. and Russian presidents in August, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry Lavrov stressed Moscow’s rejection of proposals from Kyiv and certain European governments that he said were aimed at prolonging the war. They also discussed prospects for normalizing bilateral relations.

POLAND & SWEDEN

Joint defense. Poland and Sweden carried out their first-ever joint exercises on the Swedish island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea. The drills come after Russia’s alleged violation of Estonia’s and Poland’s airspaces in separate incidents earlier this month.

INDIA PROTESTS

Unrest. Protests erupted on Wednesday in India’s remote region of Ladakh. Police clashed with demonstrators demanding federal statehood and more autonomy for the region. At least four protesters were killed and dozens were injured. It was the worst violence in decades in Ladakh, which was split from Indian-controlled Kashmir in 2019. New Delhi will hold talks on the region’s status with officials from Ladakh on Oct. 6.

EUROPE & RUSSIA

Russian accusations. European countries are preparing to secretly deploy aircraft and air defense assets on the Russian border, the head of the Russian State Duma’s defense committee said in response to accusations that Russian fighter jets have violated NATO airspace in recent weeks. He said Moscow has already observed “the movement of a number of aircraft from France and the U.K.”

TAIWAN

Defense focus. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te touted Taiwan’s growing self-defense capabilities in a meeting with members of U.S. think tank the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security. He emphasized that Taiwan’s defense budget will reach 3.32 percent of gross domestic product next year and up to 5 percent by 2030.

GZB INFOCUS: Europe’s Biggest Armies in 2025

Key Takeaways:

• While Russia has 1.3M active troops, NATO’s European members and Ukraine together have nearly 2.8M.

• Russia and Ukraine dominate Europe’s military strength, with the largest active forces.

Europe’s military landscape is rapidly evolving, shaped by both historical rivalries and modern-day conflicts. As tensions persist—particularly due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—military spending and troop numbers have surged across the continent.

This visualization breaks down the estimated size of military forces across Europe in 2025. It covers both active personnel and total military strength, which includes reserves and paramilitary units. The data for this visualization comes from GlobalFirepower

Countries are also categorized by NATO membership.

Russia and Ukraine Tower Over the Rest

Russia leads with 1.3 million active personnel and over 3.5 million total military personnel, the largest force in Europe. Ukraine, bolstered by wartime mobilization, has about 900,000 active troops and 2.2 million total personnel.

Combined, these two non-NATO countries account for more military manpower than all of Western Europe combined.

NATO’s Largest Armies: Turkey, Poland, and the UK

Among NATO countries, Turkey leads with 355,200 active troops, followed by Poland (202,100) and the UK (184,860). These nations have steadily expanded their forces in recent years, reacting to regional instability and NATO commitments.

France, Italy and Germany also maintain sizable active forces.

Small Countries, Big Reserves

Several smaller countries maintain large total military forces relative to their active troop numbers. Finland, for example, has 24,000 active personnel but nearly 948,000 total military personnel due to its substantial reserve system.

Pray.

Train.

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.

—END REPORT