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Title: August 11, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 11 AUGUST 2025

ISRAEL & HAMAS

Developments in Israel and Lebanon

Hamas and Hezbollah remain defiant.

Closer to escalation. Israel’s security cabinet has approved Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan for defeating Hamas and ending the war. The proposal involves disarming Hamas, returning all remaining hostages, demilitarizing Gaza, taking control of the strip and establishing a civilian administration that is not Hamas or the Palestinian Authority. Under the plan, Israel will complete the evacuation of Gaza City by Oct. 7 and then occupy it. According to satellite images, the Israeli military has already begun to mass forces and equipment that Israel’s intention is to hand over control of the territory to Arab forces, who would then be expected to ensure Israel’s security and decent living conditions for the residents of the strip. Hamas said it would reject any force linked to Israel entrusted with governing Gaza.

LEBANON & HEZBOLLAH

Beirut moves ahead. In a Cabinet meeting on Thursday, the Lebanese government approved a U.S. proposal that would lead to the disarmament of Hezbollah. Ministers from Hezbollah and the allied Amal movement walked out of the meeting in response to the decision. The plan would see the transfer of all weapons in the country to state control, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from their remaining positions in southern Lebanon and the launch of a large-scale program to rebuild the country.

RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR

Pragmatic approach. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reportedly told European leaders that he’s ready to agree to a ceasefire along the current frontlines but that Kyiv will not recognize the areas occupied by Russia as Russian territory. The Ukrainian constitution does not allow the president or parliament to unilaterally make changes to the country’s territorial boundaries. Zelenskyy has reportedly acknowledged that recapture of the occupied areas through military means is impossible and that a diplomatic solution is therefore necessary.

THE KREMLIN’S REACTION

Putin's debrief. Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke separately with his counterparts from Belarus and China about his recent talks with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and plans to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump. He also held calls on the same matter with the leaders of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY

Russian shortfall. Russia’s federal budget deficit in January-July exceeded the government's projected deficit for the entire year In the first seven months of 2025, it totaled 4.9 trillion rubles ($61 billion), or 2.2 percent of gross domestic product, increasing by 1.2 trillion rubles in July alone. The shortfall is partly a result of lower-than-expected oil and gas revenues, which fell by 18.5 percent compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, Russia’s construction industry is growing driven largely by state-funded infrastructure projects.

U.S. TARIFFS ON INDIA

Fallout. India is reportedly pausing planned purchases of U.S. weapons and aircraft after U.S. President Donald Trump said recently that he would raise tariffs on Indian imports to 50 percent. The purchases, which were set to be announced during Defense Minister Rajnath Singh’s now-canceled visit to Washington in the coming weeks, included Stryker combat vehicles, Javelin missiles and six Boeing P8I reconnaissance planes.

APPLE & SAMSUNG

Unexpected partnership. Samsung Electronics will produce chips for iPhones, made by its main smartphone competitor Apple at its factory in Austin, Texas. The partnership is part of Apple’s American Manufacturing Program, a $600 billion commitment to support U.S. production and boost supply chain resilience over the next four years. According to Apple, the two companies will also launch an “innovative new technology for making chips” at the same plant in Austin.

KHAZAKSTAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANT

Nuclear plans. Kazakhstan has begun construction (on its first nuclear power plant in the southeastern village of Ulken. It is expected to cost up to $15 billion, with an additional $1 billion allocated for related social projects. Russian state atomic energy firm Rosatom has been contracted to build the facility. Kazakhstan plans to construct three nuclear plants in total; a Chinese company will lead construction of the other two.

TURKEY & SENEGAL

Turkish influence. Turkey and Senegal signed four cooperation agreements during Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko’s visit to Ankara on Thursday. The deals relate to defense, media and education.

Pray.

Train.

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.

—END REPORT