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Title: August 26, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 26 AUGUST 2025

GLOBAL SITREP

GERMANY

Cuts coming. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned that Germany’s welfare system is overextended and in need of reform. At a party conference, Merz said the welfare state “can no longer be financed with what we produce in the economy” but also stressed that his government would not raise taxes on medium-sized companies, despite the vice chancellor (from his coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party) saying earlier that tax hikes on middle and high-income earners were possible. SPD lawmakers have opposed cuts to welfare programs.

ISRAEL & TURKEY

Drone contract. Israel and Turkey are competing for a major contract to supply drones to Japan. Tokyo is reportedly considering purchasing the Heron Mark II drone, developed by Israel Aerospace Industries, or less expensive Turkish alternatives like the Kargu suicide drone, as part of a $6.3 billion procurement program for unmanned systems. The contract is indicative of the growing Asian drone market and Japanese efforts to boost its military capabilities.

IRAN

Filling the gap. Iran has established weapons manufacturing facilities in several countries and could open more by the end of September, Iranian Defense Minister Amir Aziz Nasirzadeh said in a new interview. He did not disclose the locations of the facilities but added that Tehran has also sold and purchased weapons from foreign partners. His comments come after Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service said last week that Tehran might try to fill the arms gap, left by the 12-day war with Israel earlier this year, with imports from Belarus.

ISRAEL & SYRIA

In the works. Israel and Syria are in advanced stages of reaching a security deal, Sky News Arabia reported According to the outlet, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said in a meeting with Arab media figures over the weekend that a deal would be based on the 1974 disengagement agreement between the two countries. He clarified that the current conditions were not conducive to a peace deal but that he would sign a security agreement if it were in Syria’s interests.

SYRIAN DRUZE

Druze security. At least 30 armed groups in the Syrian province of Sweida announced the formation of a “Sweida national guard” under the leadership of Druze spiritual leader Hikmat al-Hijri, local broadcaster Syria TV reported The group will be tasked with protecting the border and desert areas of the province and preventing the infiltration of other armed factions and the smuggling of weapons and drugs. It will also work to coordinate the province’s security and military institutions in preparation for their future integration into state structures.

U.S. TROOP WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ

Unexpected withdrawal. The U.S. has begun a sudden withdrawal of troops from two bases in Iraq. Personnel based at Ain al-Asad airbase and the Victory Base Complex are being transferred to other locations in the region, including Irbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. Washington has reportedly informed Baghdad that it is accelerating the pullout of U.S. troops agreed to in a deal reached last September which was supposed to take place by this December.

ASIAN PACIFIC COOPERATION

Japan and South Korea. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung held talks in Tokyo In their first joint statement in 17 years, the countries agreed to establish committees to address common social challenges like demographics and slow economic growth. They also pledged to promote cooperation on hydrogen, ammonia and artificial intelligence, and to expand their bilateral “working holiday” program.

CCP & China and Ukraine.

China's Foreign Ministry has denied a report by German newspaper Welt am Sonntag that Beijing has expressed willingness to contribute troops to a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine if the mission were deployed under a U.N. mandate. European officials have apparently had mixed reactions to the proposal, given Beijing's support of Moscow throughout the war in Ukraine.

RUSSIAN GAS TO IRAN

New route. Deliveries of Russian natural gas to Iran via Azerbaijan could begin soon, Iranian ambassador to Moscow Kazem Jalali told Russia’s Tass news agency. He said Iran is holding talks with Russia’s Gazprom, and nearly all issues have already been resolved, except the price of the supplies. Russia is expected to ship 1.8 billion cubic meters of gas annually via Azerbaijan beginning later in 2025.

INDIA & CHINA

Overland trade. India and China have initiated talks on resuming trade through three border crossing areas, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said. During Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to India last week, Beijing already agreed to restore trade through the Shipki La pass in the state of Himachal Pradesh. This comes amid warming relations between the two countries after years of tension over an unresolved border dispute.

RUSSIA & CHINA

China-Russia trade. The northeastern Chinese city of Suifenhe, located near the Russian border, is developing a logistics complex to promote trade with Russia and other countries. The project is expected to cost 120 million yuan (about $17 million).

GZB INFOCUS: JAM-PROOF DRONES

Key Takeaways:

• What appear to be fiber-optic drones were pictured at a recent US Navy-led exercise in Michigan.

• These systems are unjammable due to their hard connection between the operator and the drone.

• Fiber-optic drones are prominent in Ukraine, where combatants rely on them as a countermeasure to electronic warfare.

Fiber-optic drones, featuring a hard wire between the system and the operator instead of a radio frequency connection, have become a prominent counter to electronic warfare like signal jamming, happening on both sides of the Ukraine war.

Last month, the Navy led the Silent Swarm exercise in Michigan, a training focused on emerging warfare technologies like small uncrewed aerial vehicles and surface vehicles, as well as using and countering electronic warfare capabilities.

Photos posted by the Michigan National Guard, which were first spotted and reported on by The War Zone (https://www.twz.com/air/fiber-optic-wire-controlled-drones-featured-in-navy-electronic-warfare-exercise), show what looks like a fiber-optic drone sitting on a rocky beach. The small, black quadcopter drone is equipped with a spool for a fiber-optic cable.

Another photo shows another drone with a spool sitting on a table at the exercise, as well as an Xbox-like controller next to it. Other UAVs were also present, as well as uncrewed ground vehicles featuring four wheels parked in the sand on the beach.

Why It Matters:

Silent Swarm involved some 50 defense companies and had the Navy, Michigan National Guard, and other participants use swarms of drones to simulate attacks on locations in Thunder Bay, according to a Guard press release (https://www.dvidshub.net/news/545885/silent-swarm-25-brings-innovation-experimentation-alpena) on the exercise. Data and feedback were gathered to provide insights into which systems were the most effective.

Russia first introduced these drones as a way to bypass signal jamming (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-fiber-optic-unjammable-drones-fix-a-big-problem-war-2024-8) on the battlefield, which became a prominent countermeasure for breaking the connection between the drone and operator, shutting down video feeds, and causing drones dependent on radio frequencies to malfunction.

Both Ukraine and Russia have since ramped up their use of fiber-optic drones, leaving some battlefields littered with discarded cables (https://www.businessinsider.com/unjammable-fiber-optic-drones-are-covering-ukrainian-forests-in-wires-2025-6). Immune to jamming, these drones can deliver precise strikes at ranges of more than 40 kilometers, and manufacturers are already working to push that distance even further.

The U.S. military is behind globally, on integrating drives at the platoon and squad levels. these types of training exercises are the aggressive attempt to close that gap.

**ASYMMETRIC WARFARE PROGRESSES, THREATENS GLOBAL NETWORKS:**

Over the weekend, asymmetric and drone warfare hit two additional milestones that will continue to threaten the viability of policing and international trade. In footage released on Friday, Colombian cartels used a first-person view drone (FPV) to bring down a Colombian National Police Black Hawk after learning drone warfare in Ukraine.

Taiwan announced it will produce 1320 unmanned surface vessels (USVs) over the next five years (264 per year). These USVs are proven to be operable in an EA-heavy environment. (Forward Observer)

NOTE:** I am a big believer in asymmetric warfare. The US withdrew from it a while back when it shut down the Army's Asymmetric Warfare Group (AWG). AWG was a major component in conducting information operations, another area where we are reducing operations.

The reliance on expensive combat weapons is not the future, especially when inexpensive weapons like drones can bring down sophisticated weapons platforms, even for organizations that are not militarily proficient.

Footnote – What is Asymmetric Warfare?

 Asymmetrical warfare is a type of conflict between opposing forces that differ greatly in military power, strategy, or tactics. It typically involves a weaker, often non-traditional or non-state force using unconventional methods such as guerrilla warfare, terrorism, cyberattacks, or hit-and-run tactics to counterbalance a much stronger, conventional military opponent. The stronger force usually relies on traditional military power, technology, and direct confrontation, while the weaker force exploits the superior opponent's vulnerabilities through indirect, prolonged, and irregular strategies.

Historically and in modern times, asymmetrical warfare is common in conflicts where insurgents, terrorists, or smaller unconventional groups fight large state militaries, such as the Vietnam War, resistance movements in World War II, and ongoing contemporary conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Pray.

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