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Title: December 31, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 31 DECEMBER 2025
EU POWER OUTAGE
 
**Eurostar cancels all trains out of London as power outage hits Channel Tunnel** - Eurostar has cancelled all trains out of London towards Paris, Amsterdam and Brussels until further notice after a power outage in the Channel Tunnel caused a Le Shuttle train to fail. Staff at London St Pancras station have told Eurostar passengers to postpone their travel plans and re-book for a later date. By midday, at least a dozen Eurostar services between the UK, France, Belgium and the Netherlands had been cancelled – many more had also been delayed or altered. Elsewhere, Eurotunnel service Le Shuttle has also suspended trains between Folkestone and Calais due to what it described as a "power supply issue" which occurred overnight. National Rail said the major disruption is expected to last until the end of the day.
—R.D.
 
**Note: The Channel Tunnel power malfunction from yesterday (Tuesday) has been fixed, but Eurostar is still reporting significant "knock-on" delays and some last-minute cancellations today (Wednesday, Dec 31, 2025) due to the previous chaos, with trains running but often late, especially to/from Amsterdam, so travelers must check their specific train status on the Eurostar website (https://www.eurostar.com/us-en/travel-info/travel-updates).
 
Key Details:
 
• Problem Fixed: The power fault within the tunnel was resolved overnight Tuesday.
 
• Lingering Issues: Severe disruptions on Tuesday mean services are still catching up, leading to delays and potential cancellations.
 
• Impact: Expect delays on London-Paris, London-Brussels, and London-Amsterdam routes, with some Amsterdam services terminating in Brussels.
 
• Advice: Check the Eurostar website for live updates (https://www.eurostar.com/uk-en/travel-info/travel-updates) before traveling and consider postponing if possible.
—J.G.
 
RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR
 
Ukrainian compromise. Ukraine might be ready to withdraw from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions if voters give their consent via referendum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a new interview with Fox News. He confirmed that most aspects of the 20-point peace plan brokered by the U.S. have been agreed to, with the territory issue remaining as the main sticking point. According to Zelenskyy, a compromise deal on this point would involve the creation of a free economic zone in the east and partial pullback of both Russian and Ukrainian forces from their current positions.
—J.G.
 
Targeting Putin? Relatedly, Moscow accused Kyiv of targeting the Russian presidential residence in the Novgorod region using 91 attack drones, all of which Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said were destroyed by air defenses. The minister added that Russia had “identified targets for retaliatory strikes.” Zelenskyy, meanwhile, denied the account, saying Moscow was trying to undermine the peace process and lay the groundwork for an attack on government buildings in the capital.
—J.G.
 
IRAN PROTESTS
 
Iranian unrest. Iran’s largest protests in three years erupted after the rial fell to a new record low and the central bank governor, Mohammad Reza Farzin, resigned. Merchants and shopkeepers held rallies in central Tehran and the Shush district, near the capital’s Grand Bazaar. Witnesses also reported protests in other major cities, including Isfahan, Shiraz and Mashhad. In some areas of Tehran, police used tear gas to disperse the crowds.
—J.G.
 
RUSSIA & LITHUANIA
 
Doing business. Russia’s Gazprom and Lithuanian gas transmission operator Amber Grid signed a five-year agreement for the transit of Russian natural gas to the Kaliningrad region through Lithuanian territory. Under the deal, which will replace a 10-year agreement set to expire Jan. 1, Lithuania will earn roughly 30 million euros ($35 million) for allowing the transport of 2.5 billion cubic meters of gas annually.
—J.G.
 
RUSSIAN OIL & GAS
 
Russian revenue. The share of oil and gas revenue in Russia’s federal budget has declined by half over the past few years, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. The sector accounted for 23 percent of the budget this year, down from approximately 50 percent in 2022, due to falling energy prices and the ruble’s depreciation. Siluanov emphasized, however, that the decline is also related to the growth in non-oil and gas revenue. Siluanov also expects that the Russian economy will return to balanced growth in 2026.
—J.G.
 
LITHUANIA
 
Preparing for war. Lithuania is developing fortification measures near its borders with Belarus and Russia that can be used in the event of an armed conflict. The country is fitting bridges with structures for attaching explosive materials that would enable their destruction to block the movement of hostile forces. The military is also constructing sites near the border to store anti-tank equipment, planting trees for protection on key roads and deepening irrigation ditches.
—J.G
 
LATVIA
 
Border security. Latvia, meanwhile, has completed construction on a 280-kilometer (174-mile) fence along the Russian border. The total budget for the project was 166 million euros, with an additional 20 million euros to be invested next year for patrol infrastructure and technology.
—J.G.
 
MEDITERRANEAN COOPERATION
 
Growing ties. Israel, Greece and Cyprus signed a military cooperation plan for 2026 last week, the Israeli military announced. It includes joint exercises and training, working groups in various areas and strategic contacts on issues of mutual interest. This comes after the leaders of the three countries met in Jerusalem last week to discuss expanding cooperation.
—J.G.
 
YEMEN & SAUDI ARABIA
 
Yemen escalation. Saudi Arabia launched a strike on Yemen’s port city of Mukalla after accusing the United Arab Emirates of delivering weapons to the UAE-backed separatist group Southern Transitional Council. In a statement the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the weapons shipment and accused Abu Dhabi of threatening the stability of Yemen and the broader region. It also called on the UAE to withdraw its troops from Yemen within 24 hours and cease all support for parties to the conflict. The head of the presidential council declared a state of emergency for 90 days.
—J.G.
 
CHINA
 
Focus on the countryside. At an annual rural work conference in Beijing this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for increased grain production, stability in pricing for agricultural products and rural revitalization. He also urged greater efforts to protect rural residents from falling into poverty.
—J.G.
 
KOREA & CHINA
 
Seoul and Beijing. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung will visit China next week for talks with Xi. It will be the first trip by a sitting South Korean president to Beijing since 2019. The talks are expected to focus on supply chains, investment and the digital economy.
—J.G.
 
GZB INFOCUS: CÔTE D’IVOIRE ELECTIONS
 
First results are in for Ivory Coast: Ivory Coast's ruling party increased its majority in parliament in elections held at the weekend, while the main opposition party, led by former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam, lost half of its seats, provisional results showed. This should make it easier for President Alassane Ouattara to implement his agenda that includes luring private investment to French-speaking West Africa's largest economy, the world's biggest cocoa grower. The president’s party, RHDP, took 197 of 255 seats in the National Assembly in Saturday's elections, according to provisional results announced on Monday by the electoral commission, up from 163. Most of the votes come from the north, a stronghold for the president. His opposition lost half of the seats, winning 32 seats, down from 65, while independent candidates won 23 seats, including candidates belonging to the former president, barred from running. Voters’ turnout was 35.04%, down almost 3% since last election in 2021. Results from the capital and economic center Abidjan are unknown at the moment.
—M.B.
 
Why it Matters:
 
Côte d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) is famous for being the world's largest producer of cocoa, vital for chocolate, along with significant exports of coffee and palm oil, driving its economy.
 
Background:
 
History & Identity:
 
• Colonial Past: Formerly known as the "Ivory Coast" due to the ivory trade and a French colony, gaining independence in 1960.
 
• Post-Conflict Growth: Experienced significant economic growth after periods of political instability, though poverty remains a challenge.
 
Travel to Côte d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) requires a high degree of caution due to significant risks from violent crime (carjacking, robbery), terrorism (especially near northern & western borders with Mali, Burkina Faso, Liberia), civil unrest, and health concerns, with many governments advising against travel to border zones and recommending vigilance everywhere, especially at night in cities like Abidjan, to avoid demonstrations and petty theft.
 
Key Safety Concerns:
 
• Crime: High risk of violent crime (armed robbery, carjacking, home invasions). Petty crime (pickpocketing) is common in crowded areas.
 
• Terrorism: Threats exist, particularly near borders with Mali & Burkina Faso (avoid northern regions) and Liberia (avoid western border areas). Attacks could target tourist spots.
 
• Civil Unrest: Avoid large gatherings, protests, and political rallies, which can turn violent.
 
• Road Safety: Armed robberies occur on highways (e.g., Abidjan-Yamoussoukro). Drive cautiously, especially at night, and be wary of checkpoints.
 
• Health: Risks of diseases like malaria, traveler's diarrhea, and schistosomiasis (freshwater parasite). Ensure vaccinations and preventative measures, as advised by health organizations like the CDC.
—J.G.
 
2026 is upon us. Nobody is Coming to Save You. It’s up to Us.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
—END REPORT