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Title: December 30, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 30 DECEMBER 2025
 
**Note: GZB would like to welcome American/Swiss analyst Marida “M.B.” who is making her first contribution to GZB. I have had the pleasure of getting to know her over the past 8 months and not only is she extremely intelligent, but she has a passion to do research and analysis. M.B. has been a part of the Gathering Storm Group of analysts, has the best mentor, Rob (R.D.) and we look forward to including more of her reporting in this Intel product.
 
Benvenuta, sorella! È un onore averti a bordo!
 
Bienvenue, ma sœur ! C'est un honneur de vous avoir parmi nous !
 
Willkommen, meine Schwester! Es ist uns eine Ehre, dich bei uns zu haben!
 
Welcome, my sister! It is an honor to have you with us!
 
FRANCE: LE TERRORISME
 
**Paris cancels New Year’s Eve Champs-Élysées celebrations over security fears.**
The annual midnight concert on the famed Paris avenue has been cancelled and replaced with a pre-recorded broadcast to be watched at home. Fireworks will still be launched at the Arc de Triomphe when the clock strikes midnight, but officials are urging the public to avoid gathering in large numbers.The Champs-Élysées celebration has drawn huge crowds for decades, attracting last year around one million people.
Paris police said the decision to cancel the live concert was driven by security considerations, though they did not publicly outline specific threats.The Champs-Élysées has seen repeated incidents of unrest in recent times, particularly during large public gatherings. Police say New Year’s Eve remains one of the most challenging nights of the year for maintaining public order. On 31 December last year, police recorded 984 vehicles set on fire nationwide and arrested 420 people.
 
The decision to scale back New Year’s Eve celebrations has drawn criticism from opposition politicians. Bruno Retailleau, leader of the conservative Les Républicains party and a former interior minister, said the move reflected a broader breakdown in public order.
 
He said France was experiencing a rise in violent behaviour, adding that public events had increasingly become flashpoints for disorder.
 
**Note: La police parisienne est sans aucun doute en train de lire l'édition du 27 décembre de GRAY ZONE BRIEF, dans laquelle l'analyste J.G. mettait en garde contre des attentats terroristes hautement probables la veille du Nouvel An.
 
(English: The Parisian police are undoubtedly reading the December 27th edition of GRAY ZONE BRIEF, in which analyst J.G. warned of highly probable terrorist attacks on New Years Eve.)
 
NEDERLANDS:
 
**A Small European Nation Has a Big Explosions Problem** - Three bombs go off on an average night in the Netherlands, blowing out windows and sometimes causing injury or death. “It is not normal,” a security guard says. About three times a night, in quiet and orderly streets across the Netherlands, residents are startled awake by a loud blast.
Small explosions have become disturbingly familiar in a country better known for tulips and bicycles than violence. For Dutch people who pride themselves on levelheadedness, the blasts, usually caused by illegal fireworks with the strength of a grenade, have created a sense of unease.
 
For years, the blasts had been linked to organized crime and drug traffickers using hand grenades to settle scores. Law enforcement officials say that others have recently mimicked the tactic, using black-market fireworks to target people in family disputes, relationship quarrels and business rivalries.
 
As the authorities struggle to bring those responsible to account, the attacks are proliferating. In 2022, there were just over 340 explosions, most of them linked to the drug trade or other organized criminal activity, according to police records. That number shot up to 901 in 2023 and 1,244 in 2024. This year is on pace for an even higher total — and most are not linked to organized crime, officials say.
 
“It’s a national problem that has come up in a short amount of time,” said René de Beukelaer, Amsterdam’s chief public prosecutor, in an interview. “And at the same time, it’s not going away.” While similar small-scale bombings are seen in other European countries — as part of gang fighting in Sweden, for example, and by rival political groups in Germany — Dr. Liem said that the Netherlands stands out because of the high number of explosions per capita and because most are a scare tactic by regular people in petty conflicts.
 
**Note: Commentaar van analist. Wat een bizarre tijden in Nederland! Maar goed, als je een rivaliserende bende, een drugsdealer, een buurman of wie dan ook met wie je ruzie hebt niet mag, dan blaas je ze toch gewoon op!
 
RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA!!!
 
Ukraine deal. U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met in Florida over the weekend to discuss a potential plan to end the war in Ukraine. Both leaders said after the meeting that a deal was close. Zelenskyy on Monday revealed that the United States had offered security guarantees to Kyiv for a period of 15 years, while Trump suggested an agreement on this point was 95 percent completed. Trump also said he expected European countries to assume the responsibility of closing a deal with support from Washington. Ahead of the summit, Trump confirmed on social media that he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone, a conversation that he called “good and very productive.”
 
Russian recruitment. Russia aims to recruit 409,000 soldiers in 2026, the head of Ukraine’s main intelligence directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, said in a new interview. According to Budanov, Russia met its 2025 mobilization target of 403,000 soldiers earlier this month, and the main source of reinforcements for the Russian army was contract soldiers.
 
Russian intentions. Russia currently has no intention of attacking any Baltic state or NATO as a whole, the director general of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Kaupo Rozin, told Estonian public broadcaster ERR. He also said Moscow had changed its behavior following “various incidents that occurred in the region” (referring to the severing of undersea cables and numerous drone and aircraft incursions), thanks to NATO responses to these actions.
 
Soft power. Russia will finance its renewed soft power efforts through the International Projects of Presidential Grants fund, established in December by presidential decree, according to Russian media.
 
The Kremlin said the fund will help develop programs and projects in foreign countries related to social development, health care, culture, art, science, education, enlightenment, historical memory preservation and other areas. According to RBC, the Kremlin is reviewing its soft power strategy, hoping to consolidate and reinvigorate efforts to expand its influence abroad.
 
ISW UKRAINE
 
Key Takeaways:
 
1 The Kremlin accused Ukraine of conducting a long-range drone strike targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast on December 29.
 
2 The circumstances of this alleged strike do not conform to the pattern of observed evidence when Ukrainian forces conduct strikes into Russia.
 
3 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refuted the alleged strike against Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast and warned that Russia will use this claim to justify strikes against Kyiv City and Ukrainian government buildings.
 
4 The Kremlin may intend to use this claimed strike to justify its rejection of any peace proposals that come out of recent bilateral US-Ukrainian and multilateral US-Ukrainian-European talks.
 
5 Russian President Vladimir Putin and high-ranking Russian military commanders held another meeting to aggrandize tactical details and create the false impression that the front lines across Ukraine are on the verge of collapse.
 
6 Pro-war Russian ultranationalist milbloggers are publicly acknowledging that the Russian military command’s claims are exaggerated.
 
7 Russian forces continue to commit war crimes in the Hulyaipole and Pokrovsk directions.
 
8 Several dozen Belarusian smuggling balloons illegally entered Polish airspace, and Polish aircraft intercepted a Russian reconnaissance aircraft near the international border overnight on December 24 to December 25.
 
9 Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Oleksandrivka, and Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast, in the Dobropillya tactical area, and near Pokrovsk.
 
AFGHANISTAN & TAJIKISTAN
 
**Five Killed in Armed Clash on Tajikistan–Afghanistan Border **- Tajikistan’s border protection agency said on Dec. 25 that five people were killed in a firefight after armed raiders from Afghanistan crossed into the Shamsiddin Shokhin district and attacked a border post. Two Tajik guards and three intruders died in the exchange, the third such incident in recent weeks. Authorities recovered rifles, grenades, pistols with silencers, and explosives at the scene. Dushanbe blamed the Taliban government for failing to curb cross-border terrorism and demanded an apology, warning it would defend its territory “by all means.” Russia maintains forces in Tajikistan that have previously aided in border security.
 
TURKEY TERRORISM
 
**Seven Turkish police reportedly injured during clash with Islamic State militants** - Media outlets reported that seven Turkish police officers were injured during a firefight with suspected Islamic State militants in Yalova Province, south of Istanbul, early on Monday. The clash erupted when police launched an overnight raid on a house believed to shelter militants; sporadic gunfire and smoke were later observed at the scene as the operation continued, and special forces deployed. Authorities said the wounded officers were hospitalized and not in serious condition.
 
**Final Word: Please, be vigilant, make smart decisions about events that attend on New Year’s Eve. Have an infil and exfil P.A.C.E. plan. As stated in the 27 December GZB, there is a lot of chatter from ISIS and AQ and GZB would place the threat at REDCON 4 — or Orange in Cooper’s Colors. (See graphic)
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
—END REPORT
 

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