Gi Forum
Be respectful in your interactions with fellow members. You can Go Here to read our Terms and Rules. Visit My Profile to create your avatar and see your posts. If you to report a bug or issue, email us at support.GI US.com
Title: December 26, 2025
GRAY ZONE BRIEF 26
DECEMBER 2025
**Monthly Counter-Terrorism
Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, and
DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists for the Month of November 2025** -
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Militant activity across Mozambique, the DRC and Somalia
remained intense throughout the month, with each Islamic State affiliate
sustaining operational pressure in its respective theatre. In Mozambique, ISM
expanded its geographic reach and diversified its tactics, combining targeted
killings, village-level assaults and clashes with security forces. The surge in
violence across Nampula marked a significant southward extension of activity,
driving displacement and testing already thin state and humanitarian
capacities. Despite increased deployments by Mozambican and Rwandan forces,
insurgents retained the mobility to strike across rural, coastal and peri-urban
zones.
ISLAMIC TERROR IN AFRICA
DRC
**Peace prospects dire as M23 rebels
advance despite peace deal in Democratic Republic of the Congo** - Hopes for
peace in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have faded after M23 rebels
advanced on the strategic city of Uvira despite a recent U.S. and Qatari
brokered deal. The group’s offensive, which killed hundreds and displaced over
200,000 people, deepened fears of a regional spillover involving Rwanda and
Burundi. Uvira’s brief capture undermined December’s Washington peace accord
signed by Presidents Felix Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame. Analysts say the
agreement’s weak enforcement mechanisms and continued foreign involvement make
prospects for stability bleak. The United Nations extended MONUSCO’s mandate
amid renewed fighting.
KENYA
**Kenyan Al-Shabaab Operative
Sentenced to Life in U.S. for 9/11-Style Terror Plot** - A Kenyan national
linked to the Somalia-based extremist group al-Shabaab has been sentenced to
life imprisonment in the United States for plotting a 9/11-style terrorist
attack targeting American civilians. Cholo Abdi Abdullah, 35, received the
sentence from U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres in the Southern District of
New York, following his conviction on multiple terrorism-related charges. These
included conspiring to provide material support to a foreign terrorist
organization and plotting to hijack a commercial aircraft to crash it into a
U.S. building. Abdullah's conviction concluded a jury trial on November 4,
2024. U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton described him as a highly trained extremist
prepared to die in pursuit of a mass-casualty attack.
MOZAMBIQUE
**Hundreds of thousands newly
displaced as Islamic State insurgency expands in Mozambique** - More than
300,000 people have been displaced by an Islamic State insurgency in Mozambique
since July, amid growing fears that authorities lack a workable plan to end the
fighting. With wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan attracting more attention and
foreign aid falling, the grinding conflict in Mozambique has been largely
ignored or forgotten. More than 1 million people have been displaced, many of
them two, three or even four times. Neither the Mozambican army nor a Rwandan
intervention have managed to quell the insurgency, which has ravaged northern
Mozambique since October 2017, when militants from Islamic State-Mozambique, an
affiliate of the main IS group in the Middle East, carried out their first
attacks, in Mocímboa da Praia in Cabo Delgado province in the north-east.
SAHEL
**Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger call
for joint ‘large-scale operations’ against extremists** - Leaders of Mali,
Burkina Faso, and Niger agreed to launch “large-scale operations” against
extremist groups following the formation of a new joint battalion under the
Alliance of Sahel States. The 5,000-member force will target militants linked
to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group, as the three military-led governments
expand regional cooperation after withdrawing from West Africa’s ECOWAS bloc.
The alliance’s leaders, who have expelled French and U.S. forces, emphasized
sovereignty and closer ties with Russia. Analysts say the Sahel’s security
crisis remains deeply entrenched despite growing coordination.
RWANDA
**Rwanda Shuts 10,000 Churches in
Sweeping Regulatory Crackdown** - The Rwandan government has reportedly closed
about 10,000 churches across the country for failing to comply with a 2018 law
regulating faith-based organizations. The legislation mandates places of
worship to meet strict health and safety standards, submit annual activity and
financial reports, and requires all preachers to possess formal theological
degrees. Critics and political analysts argue, however, that the crackdown is
as much about political control as it is about public safety. They contend that
the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) often "bristles when an
organization or individual gains significant social influence" outside of
state structures. Grace Room Ministries, for instance, once filled large
stadiums in Kigali three times a week before its license was revoked in May
2025 for alleged "unauthorized evangelical activities."
NIGERIA
**Nigeria: Time to Move Against Terror
Financiers** - The rise and continued spread of terrorism in Nigeria have been
accentuated by the important role played by finance. As of the last count, over
six terrorist organisations operate in the country. While the country has been
contending with Boko Haram and Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP)
terrorist groups for over 15 years in the North-east geopolitical zone, a new
group, Mahmuda, has come up in the North-central states of Kwara and Niger. In
parts of the North-west, the Lakurawa and Ansaru groups have gained notoriety,
killing people and rustling cattle. There is also al-Shabaab, whose members
invaded Owo town in Ondo State and massacred over 40 worshippers. Their base is
Kogi State. The Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) in the South-east, which was
proscribed by the federal government in 2017, is yet to be decimated. Though it
started as a secession movement, it turned violent when the founders
established a militant wing called Eastern Security Network (ESN) that
unleashed mayhem in the region. In all of these, there are marauding bandits
who pose a significant security threat. This widespread instability has caused
the displacement of entire communities, with farmlands and highways turned into
danger zones.
NIGERIA
**Nigerians facing coordinated jihad
attacks to kill ‘as many people as possible on Christmas Day’** - A US-based
humanitarian organization has issued a grave warning that armed groups are
planning coordinated attacks against Christian communities in northern Nigeria
during the Christmas period. The non-profit organization, Equipping the
Persecuted, provides essential support and resources specifically to persecuted
Christians in Nigeria and around the world. “They are gathering forces around
the Plateau and Nasarawa border, along the Nasarawa-Benue border, and along the
Nasarawa-Kaduna border. They are planning to hit on Christmas Day in Riyom,
Bokkos, and Barkin Ladi,” Saul said during an Emergency Summit on Crimes
against Christians that was held at the US Capitol on Tuesday, December 16.
U.S. RESPONSE IN NIGERIA
**Trump says US launched strike on
ISIS terrorists in Nigeria** - President Donald Trump said in a post on his
social media platform Thursday that he launched a "powerful and deadly
strike" on ISIS terrorists in Nigeria, whom he claimed have been
"targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians."
"I have previously warned these Terrorists that if they did not stop the
slaughtering of Christians, there would be hell to pay, and tonight, there was.
The Department of War executed numerous perfect strikes, as only the United
States is capable of doing," Trump added in the post. It is not yet clear
the outcome of that strike or what the exact target was. ABC News has asked the
White House for more information. In a post on X, Hegseth further said there
will be "more to come" and expressed his gratitude to the Nigerian
government for its support and cooperation.
MIDDLE EAST JIHADIST TERRORISM
SYRIA: ISIS & AQ
**ISIS Isn’t Defeated — and Syria
Proves It** - US troop deployments and airstrikes won’t stop an ideological war
we refuse to fight. ISIS still lives and “inspires” terrorism. It may or may
not be linked to various acts of terrorism but its ideology — which requires
the killing of Jews and Americans — is alive and well. The massacre of Jews at
Bondi Beach in Australia was reportedly carried out by a father-son team of
gunmen who were “ISIS-inspired.” We have a vital national security interest in
suppressing terrorism everywhere, but we cannot maintain troops everywhere and
forever. We and the Israelis have struck at Houthi terrorism but the Houthis
are now apparently sponsoring Somali pirates to raid shipping in the Red Sea
and the Indian Ocean. Al-Qaida terrorists reportedly now govern in Mali, a
nation in western Africa.
It’s not a matter of “if” but a matter of when regarding
more attacks on U.S. soil.
*** Note: GZB is tracking chatter and
possibilities of terror attacks on Embassies, New Years Eve/Day attacks, July
4th 2026, as well as 9-11 and October 7th, 2026. Although Jihadist terrorists
like dates, it’s likely that smaller lone wolf and two man cell attacks will
simply happen on random dates.
Multiple attacks on mid tier cities
and Washington D.C. as well as some military bases, large Christian churches
and Synagogues, Malls, Concerts, & Sporting Events are likely.
There is no Intel on solid dates at
this time.
VENEZUELAN TANKER STANDOFF
The U.S. Coast Guard is waiting for
additional forces to arrive before potentially attempting to board and seize a
Venezuela-linked oil tanker it has been pursuing since Sunday, a U.S. official
and a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.
The ship, which maritime groups have
identified as the Bella 1, has refused to be boarded by the Coast Guard.
That means that the task will likely
fall to one of just two teams of specialists – known as Maritime Security Teams
— who can board vessels under these circumstances, including by rappelling from
helicopters.
The days-long pursuit highlights
the mismatch between the Trump administration’s desire to seize sanctioned oil
tankers near Venezuela and the limited resources of the agency that is mainly
carrying out operations, the Coast Guard.
Unlike the U.S. Navy (https://www.navy.mil/about/mission/), the
Coast Guard can carry out law enforcement actions, including boarding and
seizing vessels that are under U.S. sanctions.
Trump earlier this month ordered a
“blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, in
Washington’s latest move to increase pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas
Maduro.
The Coast Guard has in recent weeks
seized two oil tankers near Venezuela. After the first seizure on Dec. 10,
U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi posted a 45-second video showing two
helicopters approaching a vessel and armed, uniformed troops rappelling onto
it.
A Saturday social media post by the
Department of Homeland Security, which oversees the Coast Guard, showed what
appeared to be Coast Guard officers aboard the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier
getting ready to depart and seize the Centuries tanker, the second of the ships
boarded by the U.S.
A U.S. official, speaking on condition
of anonymity, said the Coast Guard officials on the Ford were from a Maritime
Security Response Team and at the time too far from Bella 1 to carry out a
boarding operation.
“There are limited teams who are
trained for these types of boardings,” said Corey Ranslem, chief executive of
maritime security group Dryad Global and previously with the U.S. Coast Guard.
The Department of Homeland Security
did not immediately respond to a request for comment and Reuters could not
determine what, if any other reasons, have led to the Coast Guard not seizing
the vessel yet.
CHINESE CARGO SHIP
GZB We had a feeling we would be in
for another round of weapons ‘reveals’ out of China this Christmas, following
last year’s ‘leaks’ of not just one, but two tailless stealth tactical jet
designs among other developments. It appears we are getting at least one
installment of this in the form of a medium-sized cargo ship packed full of
containerized vertical launchers, along with sensors and self defense systems.
The message is clear, China is making it known that it could, and likely will,
turn ships from its behemoth of a commercial fleet into not just shooters, but
arsenal ships.
The vessel has containers packed on
its deck, both used for containing weapons and for mounting them, along with
sensors. In other words, the layout appears to be designed as something of an
improvised superstructure in order to turn the cargo ship into a heavily-armed
surface combatant of sorts. This includes the mounting of a large rotating
phased-array radar forward of the bridge atop three containers, as well as
another domed radar or communications system across the deck from it mounted on
two containers.
Near the bow of the vessel, high-up
mounted on above two containers, we see an Type 1130 30mm close-in-weapon
system (CIWS) for last-ditch defense against incoming threats, especially
cruise missiles. One container lower, on both sides, we see Type 726 decoy
launchers mounted on top of another pair of containers. The large cylindrical
pods appear to be emergency life rafts, likely required because of the expanded
crew size to make a concept like this work.
Then we get to the real eyebrow
raiser, a deck literally covered with containerized vertical launchers.
Installed five wide and three deep, each packing four large launch tubes, this
arrangement gives the vessel a whopping 60 vertical large launch cells. This is
two-thirds the VLS capacity of a Arleigh Burke class Flight I or II destroyer.
Due to the large radar installation,
it appears this ship’s mission is something of a picket ship, rather than just
an arsenal ship, providing area air defense, but that doesn’t mean its
containerized launchers couldn’t pack other weapons. Still, something like this
could be useful for persistently providing air defense over a given area.
Regardless, it’s an impressive display
and there have been rumors about China going this route as it races to advance
its goal of naval supremacy. We have already seen Chinese commercial ships
leveraged at improvised helicopter carriers and ferries being shifted to the
island invasion mission during exercises.
It’s also worth noting that
containerized weapons systems have moved from controversial oddity to the
mainstream over the last decade, and it’s an area the U.S. continues to pursue
heavily for all sorts of applications.
The images of China’s cargo ship
turned floating missile farm offer a lot to look at, but the question has to be
raised just how real this configuration is? It very much looks like it was made
photo ready for these images. Is this a proof of concept demonstrator or just a
mockup? How sturdy are the radar and CIWS installations, for instance?
On closer examination of the images,
the radar installation looks relatively robust, but takeaways are limited at
this time. The radar would have an issue with being close to inline with the
ship’s actual aft superstructure, although there are ways to mitigate this. And
just because you can bolt all this to a commercial ship, it doesn’t mean it can
employ these sensors and weapons effectively. What combat information system
exists on the ship to integrate all these systems and effectively use them in
combat?
We just don’t know at this time.
That isn’t to say that fully
developing bespoke weapons configurations for commercial vessels isn’t a good
strategy. Some will take major issue with this as it would supposedly ‘turn
every ship into a target’ during a time of conflict, and certainly maritime
lawyers would have insightful opinions on it, but the advantage of such a
ready-to-go capability is clear. China, with its massive fleets of cargo ships
and gargantuan shipbuilding capabilities could leverage this concept to a
degree that it would become a huge problem for the U.S. and its allies. On the
other hand, going a similar route will likely become necessary for the U.S.
Navy, which is being overrun in shipbuilding by the People’s Liberation Army
Navy, and that delta will likely only widen as time goes on. This reality is
only exacerbated by one failed surface combatant program after another.
There will be much more to discuss
about China’s weaponized cargo ship concept in the days to come, and, if last
year was any indication, this may not be the only ‘surprise Christmas gift’
that Beijing delivers in the hours ahead.
GZB INFOCUS: JOINT SOF EXERCISE ON EMBASSY IN PANAMA &
WHY THE PANAMA CANAL MATTERS
Elite U.S. Navy SEALs and Panamanian Special Forces Carry
Out Operation at U.S. Embassy in Panama
A U.S.-Panama “crisis response
exercise” at the U.S. Embassy in Panama City brought together Navy SEALs, Green
Berets, embassy staff, and Panamanian special forces to rehearse securing a
diplomatic facility, extracting personnel, and neutralizing threats under
compressed timelines. The drill underscores Panama’s strategic importance as
the steward of the Panama Canal and a key node in U.S. hemispheric planning. It
also arrives amid renewed U.S. pressure over Chinese influence, canal access
and fees, and talk of reintroducing U.S. military presence. Panama insists
sovereignty and canal control remain non-negotiable.
“Officials familiar with the drill
described it as a full-spectrum validation of how quickly partner units can
synchronize communications, access sensitive areas, and stabilize a rapidly
evolving threat within a diplomatic facility,” Army Recognition reported. The
56th Theater Multimedia Command released a video of the exercise, while
the website of the U.S. Embassy posted photos to its X account.
Special Operations Command
South posted a video to its X account and added that “this exercise
validated crisis response actions, and improved bilateral coordination between
U.S. and Panamanian special operations forces.” Army Recognition continued:
“This embassy-based training was designed to test and refine response protocols
in a simulated high-threat scenario, combining U.S. and Panamanian forces in a
coordinated effort to secure diplomatic grounds, extract high-value personnel,
and neutralize threats under compressed timelines. “Conducted within the actual
U.S. diplomatic compound, the exercise offered a unique operational setting
that enabled forces to practice under the jurisdictional, architectural, and
logistical constraints that mirror real-world embassy crisis environments.”
“As the global security landscape
shifts from prolonged counterinsurgency to strategic competition, Navy SEALs
are placing greater emphasis on contingency response missions in politically
complex, urban terrain. This includes embassy defense, noncombatant evacuation
operations, and coordinated responses with partner forces under joint command
structures,” Army Recognition reported. “Training in Panama delivers that
mission realism in a forward-deployed setting that is operationally relevant
and tactically irreplaceable.”
Why It Matters:
Panama’s geography makes it a key
ally. “Panama’s role as host was not incidental. The country occupies a
pivotal position on the global map, controlling access to the Panama Canal and
serving as a strategic hinge between continents and oceans,” Army Recognition
wrote. “Its security, particularly in urban centers like Panama City, remains
critical to U.S. hemispheric defense posture. Any threat to U.S. diplomatic
infrastructure or regional partners in Panama could trigger a rapid,
coordinated military response. This exercise directly addressed that
contingency.” Among those who have paid attention to Panama is U.S. President
Donald Trump.
In the opening weeks of his second
presidency, around the same time he was speaking publicly about making Canada
the 51st state and purchasing Greenland, Trump spoke several
times about wanting the United States to retake the Panama Canal.
“China is running the Panama Canal that was not given to China, that was given
to Panama foolishly, but they violated the agreement, and we’re going to take
it back, or something very powerful is going to happen,” Trump told reporters
in early February, as reported by CNN. Soon after, Secretary of
State Marco Rubio met with Panama’s President Raúl Mulino.
The Panamanian leader told Rubio that
Panama’s sovereignty over the waterway was “not up for debate,” but Mulino
assured the secretary that Panama would not renew its memorandum of
understanding to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative. In March, Reuters
reported that the Pentagon had asked for military options to ensure the
U.S. maintained “full access” to the Panama Canal. “One U.S. official, who
spoke on the condition of anonymity, said a document, described as an interim
national security guidance by the new administration, called on the military to
look at military options to safeguard access to the Panama Canal,” Reuters
reported.
Trump later suggested that U.S. ships
be given free passage through the canal, calling them “severely
overcharged and not treated fairly in any way, shape or form.” In April,
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth floated the idea of the U.S. bringing
bases back to Panama, in order to “secure” the Panama Canal. The comments came
during a visit to Panama, and Hegseth couched it as bringing the bases back “by
invitation.” However, Panama’s government was cooler on the idea. “Panama
made clear, through President Mulino, that we cannot accept military bases or
defense sites,” Panama’s security minister, Frank Abrego, said during Hegseth’s
April visit, per The Guardian.
Trump has not talked much about
wanting to recapture the Panama Canal since the opening days of his presidency.
However, Mulino in October said someone at the U.S. Embassy had been
“threatening to cancel the visas of Panamanian officials” amid U.S. pressure
for Panama to limit its ties to China. This, the Panamanian president said at
the time, was “not coherent with the good relationship I aspire to maintain
with the United States,” the Associated Press reported in October.
Background:
The Panama Canal was completed in 1914
and was controlled by the United States for much of the 20th century.
Control of the canal was given back to Panama in 1977, with the U.S.
given the power to intervene militarily “if the waterway’s operations are
disrupted by internal conflict or a foreign power.”
For many years after that, a host of
politicians in the U.S., led by President Ronald Reagan, expressed their
opposition to the Panama Canal Treaty—still, Reagan made no real attempt
to undo the treaty during his presidency. In late 1989 and early 1990,
under President George H.W. Bush, the U.S. launched Operation Just Cause,
an invasion meant to depose the president of Panama, General Manuel Noriega.
The strongman, who had past ties to U.S. intelligence, was wanted in the U.S.
on drug trafficking charges, and ultimately surrendered to the U.S. in early
1990.
Pray.
Train.
Stay informed.
Build resilient communities.
—END REPORT
All Comments
Sort by
Comments